The most significant fantasy football league in the world, the Scott Fish Bowl, reaches its twelfth edition (SFB12), once more focused on charity and joining a growing, already big fantasy football community, including celebrities and anonymous people all around the globe.
And how do we play it?
You can find the main settings at the official page. We won’t discuss kicker, but they might come handy in the format, which awards one point per kick made (FG/XP) and 0.1 per yard in field goals converted.
2-pt conversions are awarded too, but we left it out, as well as return/fumble recovered touchdowns.
SFB12: Weekly Ranks
SFB12 scoring, when combined with the Superflex slot, overvalues quarterbacks, especially the most accurate ones in the best offenses, therefore creating scarcity. Even the worse QBs have a place in a team.
The twelve best QBs in a week are generally better than any other skill player, so it creates demand for the most consistent signal-callers.
A little over twelve of those passers are drafted in the first two rounds in mocks and best ball drafts. Whoever builds a team with two of those increases their team’s weekly ceiling.
Going back to the comparison between QB and other positions, the thirteenth wide receiver is the first to start picking up the pace with the quarterback of the same rank, while the eighteenth RB is the first to surpass the QB at that spot, and finally, the twenty-fifth tight end would be better than the same ranked QB.
Figure 1 illustrates this first discussion, showing the curve of average scoring by weekly rank between 2018 and 2021 (the season range I used in the whole study, since 2018 is the first year in which pfref.com provides first-down data).
SFB12: Flex and Superflex
“Starters” (Ranks 1-84)
Looking at the top 84 scorers in a week (12 QBs, 24 RBs, 36 WRs, 12 TEs), we see how dominant the QBs are, as they lead the pack from ranks 1-28, i.e., they are premium assets for the Superflex slot.
Wide receivers and running backs start competing for the higher ranks from the 12th spot onwards, being the main guys from rank 30 to 84. Between the two, the wideouts are the best ROI, as seen in previous discussions.
Tight ends show 25% or a bigger share in the fifty-fourth spot, which discourages pursuing a second tight end for flex early in drafts, as it leaves good WR/RB assets in the hands of other teams.
Figures 2 and 3 help visualize those “starters”.
“Non-Starters” (Ranks 85-132)
Now we’ll look at the presumably “non-starters”, therefore players with flex scoring (13th+ QB, 25th+ RB, 37th+ WR, 13th+ TE) who were between overall ranks between 85th and 132nd.
Tight ends, to my surprise, were the best ones among the first twelve spots (85-96). The randomness in the position makes some of the TD receivers score a small bunch of points when compared to less relevant players in other positions.
In the next ranges (97-108, 109-120, 121-132), wide receivers are often the best choice, followed by running backs and, again, tight ends. So a low QB2 is not worth the shot. Figure 4 shows the idea in this section.
SFB: Evaluating Each Position
We must understand all positions so we know how to address them in the draft and take the best of them in (super) flex spots.
Quarterbacks
There’s a strong correlation between quarterback wins and top scores:
Coincidentally, most teams with the highest win totals have their quarterbacks coming out of Superflex boards early. If we don’t leave the draft with two of them, our weekly ceiling might be capped. Figure 5 shows how many times the best year-end QBs were among the weekly top-12:
Running Backs
Volume is king.
There’s no other way than to look for volume. Running backs need touches to gain yards, first downs, and touchdowns. Figure 6 shows how consistent those runners were with their year-end ranks in the SFB12 format, as health + volume = wins.
Wide Receivers*
Touches for RBs = Targets for WRs.
Wide receivers that are in good offenses and are targeted in the redzone often are worth their pick, so some WR2s and WR3s deserve our picks before some running backs in the middle of the draft (which resonates with the Zero RB and ambiguous backfields theories).
Tight Ends*
Key starts with K: Kelce, Kittle, Kyle (Pitts) and marK (Andrews).
The SFB12 awards bonus points for tight ends: 0.5 per reception, and 0.5 per receiving first down. So “pay up or stream” isn’t quite the norm, because those players with decent volume might be among the weekly best eventually. Of course those bonus points make the best even better than the other players. Figure 8 shows the best tight ends in the past 4 seasons.
* Noah Fant tied Hunter Henry in 2020, but was a top-12 in 5 weeks; Emmanuel Sanders tied Tyreek Hill in 2019.
SFB12: Discussion
According to Vegas, a little over ten teams should achieve 10+ wins (rounding up the numbers). Those (and their respective QBs) are:
- Arizona Cardinals, Kyler Murray
- Baltimore Ravens, Lamar Jackson
- Buffalo Bills, Josh Allen
- Cincinnati Bengals, Joe Burrow
- Dallas Cowboys, Dak Prescott
- Denver Broncos, Russell Wilson
- Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rodgers
- Indianapolis Colts, Matt Ryan
- Kansas City Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes
- Los Angeles Chargers, Justin Herbert
- Los Angeles Rams, Matthew Stafford
- San Francisco 49ers, Trey Lance
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tom Brady
- Tennessee Titans, Ryan Tannehill
QBs Are Vital
Except for Ryan, Lance and Tannehill, all QBs are being drafted very early in most Superflex drafts, therefore the correlation wins-fantasy success sounds real in the community.
Are the three guys from Indianapolis, San Francisco, and Tennessee possible sleepers? Yes, but that depends on how much the Colts, 49ers, and Titans will rely on Jonathan Taylor, the Shanahan committee, and Derrick Henry, respectively.
If any of the other QBs falls to you in the second round, you should not hesitate, especially if you didn’t pick one in the first. If you wait for a second quarterback after the two first picks, you can’t let middle-tier players like Kirk Cousins or Derek Carr go away.
Among running backs, there isn’t much to talk about, except for injuries, which we can’t predict. If you trust one, pick him and hope for health. The points will come.
Wide receivers are presumably less injury-prone, which leaves us with choosing those target hogs and redzone threats. Some names are easy to mind, like Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans e Ja’Marr Chase. You can’t miss here.
Last but not least, tight ends. If Rob Gronkowski really retired, then we have an extra spot up for grabs this year (Cole Kmet season? He’s got little competition).
SFB12: Wrapping Up
The Scott Fish Bowl 12 format better awards the true game, the impact plays with those first down bonus and passing accuracy points. Then, a good player is more likely to be also a good fantasy player.
That scoring format does not award one point to the guy who catches the ball and is down at the line of scrimmage: in this particular field, players must move the chains. So true fans should know who to pick come draft time.